We enter the year bullish on stocks and with a cyclical tilt on sectors and themes but could rotate defensively as the year progresses. Disinflation, EPS acceleration, and broad participation could give way to Fed uncertainty, tariff and deportation risks, and an EPS slowdown. Key estimates: 6600 S&P 500, 4.625% 10-year fair value, 2-2.5% real GDP, and 2.75-3.25% inflation.
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