As spot WTI hovers around $70/bbl, the U.S. SPR has become an opportunistic buyer. Since falling to the lowest levels since the early '80s in July 2023, the SPR has purchased over 36 million barrels of oil. Spot WTI has averaged about $79/bbl over that same July'23-October'24 period, and to replenish the reserve to levels seen at year-end 2021, the SPR would need to purchase over 210 million barrels. With the Department of Energy's aim to purchase at $79/bbl or less, combined with other sentiment, macro, and fundamental evidence, we believe this supports a floor for oil and NDR's bullish oil position.
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